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He has been, at various times, my co-author, boss, mentor, research supervisor, and friend. I will simply recommend it strongly: I have read it in various versions at least three times, and I have seen the underlying thesis evolve over a decade of working together.
Yet it still has the capacity to surprise me with its implications. But not all of these implications are straightforward; some help us understand the process of development but make murkier the process of supporting development. Others throw into sharp doubt the model of development that underpins how most donors operate.
I discuss four implications of the book for how we think and do development the CGD mission, after all below. Watch closely and move fast In Gambling on Development, Dercon argues that elite bargains are rarely negotiated and announced in public, with the pros and cons for all players clearly spelled out.
They must instead be inferred, even for those close to the key players. There is never a sheet of paper that tells you what the real objectives are, and what the real payoffs for different actors will be. That means that when a development bargain is struck, it may—initially—be very difficult to recognize, or to understand how it is structured. That matters, because these development bargains are rarely perfect, as Dercon repeatedly emphasizes, which means that only some parts will merit a great deal of support from outsiders.
At the same time the elements of the bargain that are developmental may not be immediately obvious, shrouded in less savoury aspects of the deal struck among the elites. An outsider may not have recognized that both aspects were central to the bargain struck.
Despite this difficulty, supporting the developmental part of the elite bargain may be important, since such bargains are likely to be fragile in their early stages, with their main payoffs tend to be long term rather than immediate. Because of this, Dercon argues that donors should be ready and willing to put financial and technical resources behind the elements of the elite bargain that are developmental, to help sustain them.
This puts the onus on them to keep a close eye on how the elite bargain evolves—not just through electoral politics, but in how the most powerful actors in the private sector, among government bureaucrats and the military engage with each other. But this suggests two problems: how do we identify a nascent elite bargain? And how do donors keep tabs on the workings of the elite? But I would argue as Dercon does that donors should invest in this sort of local knowledge, through staffing, longer postings, and simply incentivizing staff to engage carefully with local actors.
Outsiders need to gamble too One of the more compelling aspects of the development bargains theory is that they are gambles for domestic actors: there is no guarantee of rewards or success. But one of the implications of this is that outsiders who want to support a development bargain are also taking a gamble. They must first take a bet on whether a development bargain exists at all.
And then, if they correctly diagnose the existence of a such a bargain, they need to gamble again by putting money behind it to accelerate progress, even into activities such as policy advice and attempts to change and improve economic management with uncertain prospects of success. This double gamble is a very different approach to the general trend in how donors operate. Support to economic reform may be good money after bad where kleptocracy and a terrible business environment is the game of the elite, aimed to raise the barriers to entry and maximise short term pay-offs to those on the inside, but may have a multiplicative effect on development and growth when a development bargain is in place.
This suggests that at least part of donor portfolios should be devoted not to things that work broadly in a range of contexts, but to things that only work when a development bargain exists, if you think one is in the ascendancy. If the elites in a country are taking a long term bet on development, donors should be willing to match them, even at the risk of the bargain collapsing and achieving little.
Bet on bureaucrats Gambling on Development is littered with stories about brilliant bureaucrats who manage to navigate complex elite bargains in such a way as to push for genuinely good economic and development outcomes, even if this is just to keep disaster just at bay. Catch the excitement and start betting with Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. Bet now!
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| Cheapest forex broker uk | This double gamble is a very different approach to the general trend in how donors operate. D and address may be required. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time. We do not feature all providers on the market. And how do donors keep tabs on the workings of the elite? Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. Play Safe. |
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