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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PLACE AND LITERATURE
I have written before about how to use the news to gauge market sentiment. However this time I want to talk about actually reading the news through the price action strategies that form on your chart. What is a pin bar, really? How about an inside bar? You probably know what they look like, but have you ever thought about why they form?
These two strategies have a common thread — they are both the byproduct of news. Whether it be something that was just announced or a more gradual flow of news that causes market sentiment to either fluctuate or remain constant. In fact, all Forex trading strategies are a byproduct of news in one way or another. However, the pin bar and inside bar really embody the essence of how news can influence a market.
Pin Bar Some of the best pin bars form on the back of a major news event. In fact one of my favorite setups is the NFP pin bar. The timing of a news event like this can often cause the price for US Dollar pairs to rise or fall quickly, thus forming a 4 hour pin bar. Inside Bar The inside bar can be thought of as the opposite to the pin bar.
While the pin bar represents a volatile push in either direction, the inside bar represents consolidation after a large move. So whereas the pin bar forms as news is released, the inside bar often forms the day after a news release.
This is why the inside bar setup is often referred to as a type of breakout strategy. Pro Tip: While the pin bar can be traded on the daily or 4 hour time frame, the inside bar is best traded only on the daily time frame. The markets can move because of an unscheduled event or perhaps an event that has already passed and the market is just now realizing the impact.
Regardless of how or when the news occurs, the two strategies above give you a quick and easy way to read the news via your charts. We have covered a lot of material in this tutorial. Everything from how to configure the Forex Factory calendar to how to use it when trading price action. As such I would like to summarize some of the more important points to keep in mind when using the news calendar.
First and foremost, the news calendar should never be used as a tool to help you enter the market. In other words, attempting to trade a news event for the volatility it causes is a surefire way to blow up a trading account.
The calendar can, however, be a great way to keep track of upcoming events. Knowing when these events are scheduled can help you make decisions about the timing of your entries. As a price action trader, you have a distinct advantage over other market participants using something other than price action. You have the ability to read the news through your charts using strategies such as the pin bar and inside bar. Just remember to stick to the daily and 4 hour time frames with the exception of the inside bar, which should only be traded on the daily time frame.
Are you ready to start using the Forex Factory news calendar? You have to tune that out and concentrate on events that will move the market. Hence, the importance of setting filters to only high and medium impact news events. To help out a little more, here is an inexhaustive list of significant event categories you should be routinely monitoring closely. These include fiscal and interest rate announcements, macroeconomic data and indicators, and geopolitics.
Fiscal policy announcements Monthly statements are issued by the central banks, along with their take on economic conditions. These are accessible on forexfactory. The monthly roundups by the central banks are the most critical data points to keep an eye on firmly.
Other data points are essential, too. But the central bank statements are a weather-vane of what is up ahead, mainly if they are about to change interest rates. Short term rates are lowered to stimulate growth and raised to keep inflation in check.
Therefore, you must know how to use the Forex Factory calendar properly. As a rule of thumb, expectations of rising interest rates fuel higher currency valuations, while the opposite holds for expectations of lower rates. Macroeconomic Data and Indicators If the central banks are the weather-vanes, macroeconomic data and indicators are the barometers.
What microeconomics and indicators tell us is the underlying health of the economy which are often driven by exports and inward foreign investment. You should, therefore, be tracking such info with the Forex Factory calendar. Having a handle on what is going on below the surface is invaluable to spot a currency trending.
Which fundamentals should I be tracking? You should be tracking interest rate expectations, central bank policy, and any indicators that directly affect either. Getting to know your way around the Forex Factory calendar is time well spent. To speed things up for you, here is a tip sheet on the ones to watch. The Forex Factory calendar is a good all-rounder in this regard as it flags up major headlines as high impact and offers explanations as to the significance of the news.
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product GDP : About a month after the quarter ends, there is typically a preliminary or advanced reading available. A final reading follows about three months later. The most important one to watch in your Forex Factory calendar news filter is the preliminary reading. The much later final text rarely deviates from the first reading.
Monthly jobs report: Another item for the Forex Factory news filters is the monthly jobs report. Monthly job news is much more significant to countries like the US and the UK due to these economies relying on consumer spending rather than exports or domestic manufacturing. Monthly retail sales: The same applies here as an indicator of consumer spending.
A score of 50 or higher signals growth. Any number under 50 means a decrease. Housing Data: This encompasses a diversity of monthly reports from new builds to home sales, etc. This data is a temperature test of the economy. It is also a good health indicator of banking, consumer lending, and spending, employment as housing has a significant influence on all of these sectors.
These suggestions above are good starting places while you are learning how to use the Forex Factory calendar. Geopolitics Due to its inherently international nature, the forex market is highly sensitive to significant geopolitical events. Much more so than other markets. Keep a close tab on geopolitics, particularly currency pairs that may be acutely sensitive to local events. Geopolitics hold a lot of influence over countries and consequently, their currency price.
Valuations will move — and rapidly — to geopolitical changes as these will impact on such levers as interest rates, trade, growth, and a raft of factors underlying their economies. It is, therefore, to get to grips with the Forex Factory calendar to minimize your risk in the same way that big money traders do as a matter of course.
The adage here is that geopolitical instability means markets sell and then ask questions afterward. The Forex market is hyper-sensitive to serious unrest of any kind and will retreat with its capital into currencies of safe haven to the whole thing blows over. Set up this as a news filter, too, as positive or negative geopolitical data outranks economic data. We have discussed a lot so far about newsgathering.
Not so much about how to strategize this intel into trade positions that minimize risk. This is where knowing how to use the Forex Factory calendar comes into its own. Being forewarned is crucial to preparing for a spell of stormy high volatility weather. This third part of our guide, we examine how to use the Forex Factory calendar news to reinforce your forex trading and make it more profitable.
This last section brings everything together and discusses what role price action plays. We have the news, but we need to do something constructive with it, right? Inextricably linked to the news are the pin bar and the inside bar.
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